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Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden is maintaining his national poll lead over Donald Trump with an 8-point lead in a new USA Today poll and Trump still underwater in his national approval rating while a new batch of state polls provide the Democrat more encouraging news.
The same USA Today poll that has Biden leading Trump 52-44 has the president’s approval rating at a perilous 44 to 53 rating.
In the latest Gallup survey, Trump’s approval is at 46, with 52 percent disapproval. His approval hasn’t hit 49 percent in the survey since January. Incumbents with upside-down approval ratings tend to have difficulty getting reelected.
The real battle is in the state-by-state race for the Electoral College, but Thursday’s news was mostly bad for the president there as well.
A new New York Times / Siena survey has Biden edging Trump 48-45 in North Carolina, a state Trump carried in 2016 where Biden has assembled a narrow polling lead in a state considered a tossup.
The Supreme Court ruled on Monday that both North Carolina and Pennsylvania can count ballots postmarked by Election Day that come in later. In the case of North Carolina, they can be counted through Nov. 12th. Democrats have been pushing mail-in voting, but the state also has many military members, some of whose mail ballots could go Trump’s way.
With Trump boxed out in many states and Biden having multiple paths to 270 electoral votes, Trump’s campaign still hopes to pry Minnesota out of the Democratic column after coming close there in 2016.
But on Thursday two polls, including a Trafalgar poll that has had Trump over-performing polls in other states, had Biden up there.
He led 47 42 in a SurveyUSA poll, and 48 to 45 in the Trafalgar Group poll. Biden heads to the state Friday afternoon – an indication his team does not want to leave it to chance after earlier sending him to Republican-leaning battlegrounds like Georgia.
In Ohio, a state Trump carried in 2016, a new Gravis poll has him up over Biden 49 to 47.
‘The best news for Trump today is the Ohio poll, which has him leading a large, important state (albeit by a small margin) that could swing either way,’ wrote analyst Ron Faucheux of Certus Insights in his poll newsletter Thursday. ‘Other than that, It’s hard to find much Trump swing-state momentum.’
But a Quinnipiac University poll that came out late afternoon Thursday had Biden leading 48 to 43 percent, above the average of polls there, where the race is essentially tied.
According to the survey, Biden’s favorability rating is 47 to 46 – whereas only 43 percent view Trump favorably and 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
‘A race that’s been virtually tied now looks to be tilting toward Joe Biden. The question is whether he can hold onto that slight lead in a state where President Trump won comfortably in 2016,” said poll analyst Mary Snow.
A Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania had Biden maintaining his lead in the critical state, 51 to 44.